giovedì 4 ottobre 2018

NLDS 2018 preview

After a series of tie breaker games to determine the winners of NL Central and NL West who saw the Dodgers beat the Rockies and Brewers prevail on the Cubs, last night was staged the National League Wild Card game that saw the Cubs host to Wrigley the Rockies with a ticket to Milwaukee up for grabs. The victory after 13 innings went to the guests thanks to a single pinch hit by Tony Wolters that allowed Trevor Story to score the victory point for the second time in two days Wrigley and the Cubs fans.

In the division series the Atlanta Braves will face the Los Angeles Dodgers who will have the advantage of the field factor while in the other series the advantage of the field factor will be of the Milwaukee Brewers who will see it with the Colorado Rockies.

Braves vs Dodgers will most likely be a series where the pitchers will have the upper hand, because despite both teams have high-level bats like Machado and Freeman all the games in the series will be played in "pitchers" ballpark and also the weather factor will have its impact especially in that of Atlanta where temperatures are in sharp decline. The expected part for the series on the Atlanta side are: Teheran, Foltynewicz, Newcomb and Sanchez with Gausman who will take the bullpen in the role of long reliever. Los Angeles will respond with: Kershaw, Ryu, Hill and Buehler with Stripling to help the bullpen. As for the lineup, the Dodgers have a fairly strong vain both in terms of power and the average in battuta but also with regard to the depth that affects the matchup especially in the last innings of the match against the opponent's bullpen. The Braves lineup is for many elements very young and inexperienced and at the postseason level it could represent an unknown factor that will surely make the fate of this series move from one side or the other. Speaking of bullpen is always the subject of the experience, that of Los Angeles led by closer Kenley Jansen is back from various postseason experiences including that of last year at the World Series while the Atlanta boasts only a couple of postseason presences and has a lower average age. Summing up Los Angeles is the most complete team perhaps of all the MLB despite the various injuries that have struck during this campaign but on the other side there are Braves that after several seasons in the lower part of the standings have been able to grow this generation of talents led by Acuna Jr. and Albies who will make their main weapon a competitive fury and charge.

The second of the two division series will see the Milwaukee Brewers and the Colorado Rockies opposite, probably two of the hottest teams of the moment. On paper this should not only be a series fought a series for lovers of attacks as the combination of explosive lineup and rotations of not very solid starting parties in two "hitters" park as the Coors field and Miller could give life in high-scoring races with constant upheavals in the face.

At the level of the rotation of the starters I see a substantial balance between the two contenders, the difference will be the bullpen and that of the Brewers so far has been formidable. Led by Josh Hader, Milwaukee's bullpen boasts players like Jeffress, Knebel and Albers. This is a bullpen where there is no fixed closer, but where the manager Craig Counsell decides the roles based on the shape of the pitcher and the matchup that presents him at the time. It is likely that the Wisconsin team's bullpen will be the key to these playoffs and will likely come into play even before the regular sixth and seventh inning matches. The lineups are both of the highest level and see on the one hand two candidates for the MVP as Story and Arenado along with the likes of Blackmon and Gonzalez, on the other the probable MVP Yelich in the company of Braun, Aguilar and Moustakas. Although I see a slight lead in favor of the Rockies both lineups will put the opposing pitchers to a very strong test by igniting what could be the most spectacular series of this playoff session on paper.



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